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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1%, while expectations for inflation three and five years ahead were unchanged. Respondents also reported weaker expected economic growth and higher expected unemployment, alongside increased expectations for income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that consumers’ median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while their outlook for economic growth weakened. The survey also recorded higher expected unemployment and increased expectations for income, spending and home-price growth, offering a monthly measure of household views used in the ECB’s policy analysis.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months edged up to 3.6% from 3.5%. Longer-term expectations did not change: respondents put inflation three years ahead at 2.9% and five years ahead at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year increased to 5.3% from 5.2%. These are survey responses about nominal growth, not measures of inflation-adjusted household income or spending.
Respondents’ expectations for economic growth over the coming year fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4%; expected mortgage rates remained at 4.9%. The ECB also reported that the net share of households saying credit access had tightened, and expecting it to tighten, increased compared with August.
Households See More Price and Jobs Pressure
The results show a mixed household outlook: near-term inflation expectations rose, while longer-term inflation expectations were stable. At the same time, respondents anticipated weaker economic growth and a higher unemployment rate. These views matter because household expectations can inform analysis of spending and economic conditions, but the survey does not establish that consumers’ forecasts will be borne out.
Differences across income groups point to uneven perceptions. The ECB said people in the lowest income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest quintile. They also expected higher unemployment, stronger home-price growth and higher mortgage rates. Such gaps describe survey responses; they do not by themselves measure the actual financial circumstances of every household in those groups.
The increase in expected spending growth alongside weaker expected economic growth also illustrates why the figures need to be read together rather than as a single verdict on the outlook. The survey records what participating consumers expect, not a forecast issued by the ECB or a decision by its governing bodies.
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How the September Survey Was Conducted
The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults across 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
The ECB says the results complement other data sources used in policy analysis. Unless otherwise indicated, the release’s statistics refer to a 2% winsorised mean; the inflation figures described as medians are identified separately in the release. The ECB also says survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. Microdata and country-level results are available through the ECB’s data resources.
““The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.””
— European Central Bank
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What the Survey Cannot Establish
The release reports consumer expectations, not verified future outcomes. It does not establish whether inflation, growth, unemployment, home prices or borrowing costs will follow the paths respondents anticipated. Nor does it attribute the month-to-month changes to a specific cause.
The ECB said inflation-expectation uncertainty rose slightly and remained above its level before the conflict in the Middle East began, but the release does not quantify the conflict’s effect on responses. The reported increase in net household concerns about credit access is also not accompanied in the release text by a percentage-point figure. Results reflect fieldwork conducted through 28 September and may not capture developments after that date.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the next Consumer Expectations Survey results, covering October 2026, for 27 November 2026. Those results will provide the next monthly comparison for inflation expectations, household spending and income views, growth and labour-market assessments, and housing and credit conditions.
Until then, the September findings remain a snapshot of responses gathered from late August through late September. Readers can consult the ECB’s data portal and survey page for country-level aggregates and the underlying microdata, subject to the ECB’s published methodology.
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Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September 2026 survey find about inflation?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0%. Expectations three years ahead remained 2.9%, and those five years ahead stayed at 2.5%.
What did consumers expect for economic growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
Did expected housing costs change?
Expected home-price growth over the next 12 months increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expected mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%.
Who took part in the survey?
The monthly online survey covers around 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries. September fieldwork ran from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
When will the next results be released?
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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