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Noah Smith, Brad DeLong and Dan Wang discussed the potential Anthropic IPO in the first new Hexapodia conversation, now being released through Substack Live and as a podcast. Smith argued that frontier AI firms could become deeply tied to businesses across industries; DeLong and Wang were more skeptical. The source does not report an IPO filing, date or valuation.
Noah Smith, Brad DeLong and Dan Wang discussed the prospect of an Anthropic IPO in the first new episode of Smith and DeLong’s Hexapodia program, which Smith says will return as Substack Live conversations recorded for podcast and email distribution. The discussion set out Smith’s bullish case for the AI company against the more skeptical views of DeLong and Wang; the report does not say Anthropic has filed to go public or set an IPO date.
Smith described his case as a forecast about how businesses might organize around frontier AI, rather than a prediction that Anthropic will take over every industry or that AI will replace all human workers. He argued that companies could need access to proprietary models that remain ahead of versions distilled from them, and that access might involve closer financial ties than buying AI services at arm’s length.
In Smith’s proposed scenario, frontier AI providers such as Anthropic, OpenAI and Google could compete through business relationships across multiple industries. Companies might become, in his words, “in some sense a subsidiary” of a model provider. Smith framed this as a possible shift in how capital and corporate control are organized, not as a confirmed description of Anthropic’s current business model or a settled forecast.
The Noahpinion post says DeLong and Wang were more skeptical, but it does not set out their full arguments in the supplied report. Smith also disclosed that he has no current Anthropic position, expects he will probably buy its stock if it goes public unless circumstances change, and owns stock in TypeSafe, which he identified as an Anthropic competitor.
The Stakes in Smith’s IPO Case
The discussion matters because it treats a potential Anthropic listing as more than a question of valuation: Smith’s thesis links the company’s future prospects to whether frontier AI providers gain lasting influence over how businesses operate and finance themselves. If firms need privileged access to leading models, closer partnerships could affect competition, corporate independence and which companies capture value from AI.
That outcome is a scenario, not an established trend in the source material. The disagreement among the participants highlights that an IPO discussion can turn on uncertain questions about technology, market structure and the durability of any lead in model capability. Readers should distinguish Smith’s investment view from confirmed information about Anthropic’s plans or financial position.
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Hexapodia Returns on Substack
Smith said Hexapodia, his podcast with economist Brad DeLong, is returning in a new format: conversations held on Substack Live, recorded as podcasts and sent out by email. He described the first session as “a little rocky,” saying he got the time wrong and arrived 20 minutes late. DeLong and Wang began talking before Smith joined.
Smith said the conversation was prompted by a post he had published the previous week about Anthropic and a possible IPO. He also pointed to a 2026 paper by Google DeepMind economists Imas, Koh and Legg. As quoted in the post, their model examines how AI capabilities and coordination could change firm size and market structure, including a possible shift toward larger, more concentrated, AI-heavy firms. Smith said the paper captured some dynamics behind his argument, while describing his own version as involving human workers and private data alongside AI.
No Filing or IPO Terms Reported
The source provides no confirmation that Anthropic plans to go public. It gives no filing, timetable, proposed share sale, valuation or financial details. Smith’s statement that he will probably buy the stock if an IPO happens is his personal expectation, not evidence that a listing is scheduled.
The post also summarizes DeLong and Wang as skeptical without detailing their reasoning, and it does not establish how likely Smith’s proposed corporate structure is. The cited economic model is presented as relevant to the discussion, not as proof that the market will develop in that way.
Further Episodes and IPO Updates
Smith says Hexapodia will continue as a series of live conversations, recorded podcasts and email releases; the post does not provide a schedule for the next episode. Any concrete update on an Anthropic listing would need to come from the company or formal IPO disclosures. Until then, the discussion remains a debate about a possible offering and the economic role frontier AI firms could play.
Key Questions
Has Anthropic announced an IPO?
Not in the source report. It discusses the possibility of an IPO but gives no company announcement, filing or date.
What was Noah Smith’s argument?
Smith argued that businesses may seek close ties with frontier AI providers to access proprietary models that could remain ahead of distilled alternatives. He presented this as a possible change in corporate structure, not a confirmed outcome.
Why were Brad DeLong and Dan Wang part of the discussion?
They joined Smith for the first new Hexapodia conversation and, according to the post, took a more skeptical view of the Anthropic case. The report does not provide a detailed account of their objections.
What is the new Hexapodia format?
Smith says the program will return as Substack Live conversations, which will also be recorded as podcasts and distributed by email.
Did Smith disclose any relevant investments?
Yes. Smith said he has no current position in Anthropic but will probably buy its stock if it goes public, absent a major change. He also said he owns stock in TypeSafe, an Anthropic competitor.
Source: noahpinion.blog
