TL;DR
Spain and France are the leading contenders to win the 2026 World Cup, according to sportsbooks. Meanwhile, U.S. bettors are backing their home team at an outsized rate, despite long odds, creating significant bookmaker liabilities.
Spain and France are the clear favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, with sportsbooks showing Spain as the top-rated team and France closely behind. Meanwhile, U.S. bettors are disproportionately backing their home team, despite the Americans’ long odds, according to multiple sportsbook reports. This betting trend is notable because it influences bookmaker liabilities and reflects the tournament’s unique North American setting.
Sportsbooks indicate Spain is the consensus favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, with odds around +450 at DraftKings Sportsbook. France is either co-favorite or second favorite, with odds ranging from +450 to +500 across different platforms. Both teams are attracting the majority of bets and handle, with BetMGM reporting over 30% of its wagers and nearly half of its handle in the winner market backing either Spain or France. Spain is also the second-largest liability for the sportsbook, despite its short odds.
U.S. bettors are showing a strong preference for their national team, with DraftKings reporting the Americans as the eighth-most backed team by handle. Despite their long odds—around 60-1—U.S. bettors are placing significant wagers, including a notable $1,000 bet at BetMGM on the U.S. to win, which poses a substantial risk for sportsbooks if the team advances far in the tournament. This enthusiasm is partly driven by the tournament being hosted on North American soil, with games in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
Impact of U.S. Betting Trends on Bookmakers’ Risk
The heavy backing of the U.S. team by American bettors creates a significant liability for sportsbooks, as a deep run by the Americans could lead to substantial payouts. This betting pattern underscores the influence of home-country enthusiasm on betting markets, especially when combined with the tournament’s location. For sportsbooks, managing this risk while accommodating customer preferences is a key challenge ahead of the competition.
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Historical Betting Patterns and 2026 World Cup Favorites
Spain has historically been a strong contender, winning the World Cup in 2010, with previous wins by Brazil and West Germany. France is a recent champion, having won in 1998 and 2018. The 2026 tournament marks the first time it is hosted across three countries—U.S., Mexico, and Canada—potentially influencing betting behaviors. Prior to the tournament, Spain and France are widely regarded as the top contenders among bookmakers and bettors alike, with other traditional powers like England, Argentina, and Brazil trailing in popularity.
“Spain and France are the two teams to beat, and they’re attracting a lot of betting action. The interest in the U.S. team is also remarkable, given their long odds, but it’s a risk we’re prepared to take.”
— an anonymous sportsbook executive
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Unclear Impact of Early Tournament Results on Betting
It remains uncertain how early matches will influence betting patterns, especially if the U.S. or other underdogs perform unexpectedly well or poorly. The extent to which these betting trends will persist throughout the tournament is still developing, and bookmakers are monitoring the situation closely.
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Upcoming Betting Milestones and Tournament Progress
As the tournament progresses, sportsbooks will adjust odds based on team performances and betting activity. Key matches involving Spain, France, and the U.S. will likely shift betting patterns and liabilities. Monitoring these developments will be essential for understanding the evolving betting landscape and potential financial impacts for bookmakers.
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Key Questions
Why are U.S. bettors heavily backing their team despite long odds?
Many bettors are motivated by national pride and the excitement of hosting the tournament on home soil, which amplifies enthusiasm and betting activity on the U.S. team.
How are sportsbooks managing the risk from heavy U.S. betting?
Bookmakers are setting fair odds to attract bets and are prepared for the possibility of the U.S. advancing far, which could result in significant payouts if the team performs well.
Will the betting trends change if the U.S. or other favorites perform unexpectedly?
Yes, early tournament results often influence betting patterns. If underdogs perform well, betting on them could increase, altering bookmaker liabilities and odds.
How does the location of the tournament influence betting behavior?
The tournament being hosted in North America encourages more local betting, especially on the U.S. team, due to national pride and increased visibility of matches.
What are the long-term implications for sportsbooks if the U.S. team advances far?
Significant liabilities could arise for sportsbooks, potentially leading to large payouts, especially if the team wins or reaches the final stages.
Source: Google Trends
